The Future of the North of England – Economic Scenario and Policy Analysis

The importance of identifying an equitable and environmentally sustainable route to regional prosperity for the North of England has never been more important. A lot has changed since the 2016 Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review, and a refreshed and updated route map was urgently required.

The centrepiece of this study was a detailed scenario analysis of the economy of the North of England. Using Cambridge Econometrics’ Local Economy Futures Model (LEFM) we tested a range of different policy options for the North on a wide variety of different outcomes.

The results of our analysis will be used to guide and help prioritize the North’s strategic transport plan.

The policy options tested were grouped into four categories:

1. The enactment of the full UK Net-Zero Program within the North, and the impact this had on emissions, gross value added (GVA) and job opportunities.
2. A range of supply-side policies focused on supporting and encouraging innovation, exporting, and accelerated technology adoption.
3. Tackling a number of outstanding issues within the Foundational Economy, particularly around provision of Education and Health care, and the impacts this had on the level and skills of the Northern workforce.
4. A significant investment in, and allocation of land to, both housing and commercial space, as a tool of releasing growth potential across the region.

The combined “new transformational” scenario, which incorporated all four categories of intervention, was measured against a range of metrics, reflecting the North’s economic, social and environment priorities and aspirations.