Pioneer Valley Planning Commission: Economic Recovery Scenario Planning and Strategic Roadmap

With widening gaps in unemployment and poverty rates, homeownership, income levels and other critical metrics, Cambridge Econometrics’ scenario planning and strategic roadmap is helping to support work towards creating a more equitable and inclusive economy in the Pioneer Valley region of western Massachusetts.

Cambridge Econometrics worked with the Pioneer Valley Planning Commission (PVPC) on an EDA-funded economic recovery strategic planning project. Cambridge Econometrics completed initial work to understand and outline key regional economic priorities, with emphasis on workforce, small business, and other strategies to help create a more equitable and inclusive economy. Cambridge Econometrics then worked with a broad-based task force of economic development stakeholders to envision future economic scenarios, trends and opportunities.

To produce a clearer understanding of the scale of potential economic initiatives to help drive the priorities for an action-based strategic plan, Cambridge Econometrics applied its Local Economy Futures Model (LEFM) to lead scenario planning analysis which sought to:

• anticipate potential future trends and opportunities in the region.
• examine what ‘economic success’ looks like for the Pioneer Valley.
• test and better understand how various strategic initiatives (policies, investments, programs) can help contribute towards economic success for the Pioneer Valley.

Using this analysis, and working closely with Pioneer Valley Planning Commission, and with the engagement of local partners, we developed a strategic roadmap which identified specific economic recovery strategies for the region.

Key findings

The scenario planning focused on identifying the impacts of strategic initiatives aimed at creating a more equitable and resilient Pioneer Valley economy, which included:

• Increasing workforce participation and removing obstacles to sustained employment.
• Enhancing homeownership and small business growth opportunities for under-represented BIPOC communities.
• Reversing stagnant population trends, improving infrastructure, and prioritizing vibrant town centers and downtowns.
• Expanding business and employment in target industry sectors such as clean energy and cybersecurity.

Two example analyses are included here with full details in the main report.

1. Increasing the number and growth of BIPOC-owned businesses is a central goal to build a more equitable and inclusive Pioneer Valley economy.

We identified both an aspirational and transformational scenario, the latter of which highlights the potential for 4,900 additional BIPOC business owners by 2040.

BIPOC business ownership scenario options

Our LEFM found realizing this transformational scenario could generate an additional 13,500 direct, indirect, and induced jobs; $2.4 billion of additional output for regional firms; and a $1.4 billion boost to household incomes.

2. The Pioneer Valley was an early leader in developing its clean energy economy and significant growth opportunities continue to exist for the cluster.

We identified both an aspirational and transformational scenario, the latter of which highlights the potential for 11,500 additional clean energy jobs in the region by 2040.

Clean energy scenario job impacts

Our LEFM found realizing this transformational scenario could generate a further 13,800 indirect, and induced jobs; $5.8 billion of additional output for regional firms; and a $3.3 billion boost to household incomes.

Using these results, each of the strategic initiatives were explored in significant detail with stakeholders to develop the ideas on actions, next steps, and resources needed for implementation.